联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	10144
作者编号：	2120162762
上传时间：	2018/6/9 21:17:27
中文题目：	分析师盈余预测对股价波动同步性的影响研究
英文题目：	The Research on the Impact of Securities Analyst Earning Forecast on the Synchronization of Stock Price Volatility
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	证券分析师；盈余预测；股价波动同步性
英文关键字：	Securities analyst; Analyst Earnings Forecast; Synchronization of stock price volatility
中文摘要：	随着中国股票市场的不断发展，股价波动同步性成了学者们关注的一个热门。尤其是近几年，中国股票市场上“牛市”、“熊市”交替出现，整个股票市场经常出现“同涨同跌”的现象，广大投资者尤其是中小投资者缺乏足够的信息甄别能力，往往跟风“追涨杀跌”，最后血亏离开股市。 国内外学者的研究表明，股票价格波动同步性高是市场发展不完善的表现。数据显示，中国股票市场上股价波动同步性相较欧美发达国家要高出很多。一般认为，上市公司信息披露质量及证券分析师盈余预测会对股价波动同步性产生影响。目前，针对股价波动同步性高这一问题，主要存在两种学术观点，一种是“市场效率观”，一种是“噪音基础观”。持市场效率观的学者认为是不完善的股票市场的低效导致了股价波动同步性的升高，持噪音基础观的学者认为由于新兴股票市场制度的不完善导致市场上的“噪音信息”太多影响了投资者的投资决策最终导致股价波动同步性升高。 针对以上问题，本文主要从证券分析师跟随数量、盈余预测质量和盈余预测分散度三个角度，定量分析了分析师盈余预测对股价波动同步性的影响。本文针对以上提到的三个角度，分别提出了三个研究假设，以深交所主板上市公司为样本，将股价波动同步性作为被解释变量，分析师跟随数量、盈余预测质量及盈余预测分散度作为解释变量，以上市公司信息披露质量、公司规模、资产回报率等作为控制变量，构建模型，并以STATA14.0作为统计软件对变量做回归分析，得出如下三条结论：第一，同一家上市公司证券分析师跟随数量越多，股价波动同步性越低；第二，证券分析师盈余预测质量越高，股价波动同步性越低；第三，证券分析师盈余预测分散度越低，股价波动同步性越低。
英文摘要：	With the continuous development of China's stock market, the synchronization of stock price volatility has become a hot topic for scholars. In particular, in recent years, the “bull market” and “bear market” have appeared in the Chinese stock market alternately, and the phenomenon of “same rise and fall” frequently occurs. The majority of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, lack adequate information screening capabilities. Following the trend of "chasing and selling", the investors suffered huge loss. Researches by scholars at home and abroad show that high synchronicity of stock price fluctuations is a manifestation of imperfect market development. The data shows that the synchronization of stock price fluctuations in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of developed countries like America and countries in European. It is generally believed that the information disclosure quality of listed companies and the earnings forecast of securities analysts will affect the synchronization of stock price volatility. At present, there are two main academic views on the issue of high synchronization of stock price volatility. One is the "market efficiency view" and the other is the "noise basis view." The scholars who hold the view of market efficiency think that the inefficiency of the stock market has led to an increase in the synchronization of stock price volatility. Scholars who hold a noise-based view believe that due to the imperfection of the emerging stock market system, too much “noise information” exists on the market. Many investors' investment decisions have been affected by this, which finally led to a higher synchronization of stock price fluctuations. In view of the issues above, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of analyst earnings forecasts on the synchronization of stock price fluctuations from three perspectives: the number of analysts followed, the quality of earnings forecasts, and the dispersion of earnings forecasts. This paper proposes three research hypotheses for the three perspectives mentioned above, taking the listed companies on the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as a sample. It takes the synchrony of stock price volatility, the number of analysts following, the quality of earnings forecasts, and the forecasting dispersion of earnings as the explanatory variables. It picks the disclosure quality of listed company information, company size, and return on assets as control variables. Based on this, a model was constructed and STATA 14.0 was used as statistical software to do regression analysis on the variables. The following three conclusions were obtained: 1. For a certain company, The more securities analysts follow, the lower the synchronicity of stock price volatility appears; 2. Higher the securities analyst's earnings forecast quality leads to lower the synchronicity of stock price volatility; 3. Lower securities analyst's earnings forecast dispersion leads to lower fluctuating stock price volatility.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)