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论文编号：	10070
作者编号：	2120162701
上传时间：	2018/6/7 20:38:04
中文题目：	行业景气指数、上市公司业绩预告与分析师预测误差
英文题目：	Industry Climate Index, Performance Forecast of Listed Companies and Analysts’ Forecast Error
指导老师：	陆宇建副教授
中文关键字：	行业景气指数；业绩预告；分析师预测误差
英文关键字：	Industry Climate Index; Performance Forecast; Analysts’ Forecast Error
中文摘要：	随着经济发展，资本市场的重要性与日俱增。其信息质量成为了影响经济稳定性以及投资者决策效率的要素。其中，上市公司业绩预告与分析师预测是增加其信息含量及透明度的重要途径。二者的存在能提供增量信息，减少信息不对称。此二者之间亦有一定的互动关系。 本文首先研究企业所在行业的景气程度对跟踪该企业的分析师预测误差的影响。由于分析师进行预测时要结合内部信息和外部环境，所以预测偏差可能会受外部行业状况的影响。而后，研究业绩预告对分析师预测误差产生的影响。继而分析不同精度预告的影响程度。最后，探讨行业景气指数与业绩预告对分析师预测误差的交互影响。 本文研究的主要结论如下。首先，分析师预测误差和行业景气指数成负相关关系。行业景气指数较低时，分析师的预测相较真实值会更为乐观，误差更大。其次，业绩预告使分析师的误差明显减小。同时，业绩预告精确度越高，即区间估计的区间较小或采用点估计的预告方式时，业绩预告后的分析师预测误差更低。表明不同的业绩预告精确度会对分析师预测误差产生不同的作用。最后探讨三者之间的关系，发现当行业不景气时，业绩预告对分析师预测误差的影响程度更大。 本文研究的创新之处有以下几个方面。首先，以往关于分析师预测误差的探究，很少涉及的外部宏观因素，而外部因素又是影响预测误差的关键原因。本文引入了行业景气指数，探究其如何影响预测误差，有一定创新价值。其次，在探讨业绩预告对分析师预测误差影响时，创造性地通过严格的时间顺序以及配对、对比研究，解决了内生性问题，并清晰地反映了预告前后分析师预测的误差大小差异。最后，探讨了在不同行业状况下，业绩预告对分析师预测误差的降低效果是否不同，从另一角度丰富了业绩预告和分析师预测互动机制的相关文献。
英文摘要：	With the economic development, the importance of the capital market is increasing day by day. Its information quality has become an important factor affecting economic stability and investor decision-making efficiency. Among them, performance forecast and analyst forecast are important ways to increase their information content and transparency. The existence of the two can provide incremental information and reduce information asymmetry. There is also a certain amount of interaction between the two. This thesis first studies the impact of industry climate index on the analysts’ forecast error. Because analysts need to combine internal information and the external environment when making predictions, forecast deviations may be affected by external industry conditions. After that, the thesis studies the effect of performance forecasts on analysts' forecasts. Then the thesis analyzes the extent of impact of different precision forecasts. Finally, it discusses the interaction between industry climate index and performance forecast on analysts’ forecast error. The main conclusions of the data regression results in this thesis are as follows. First, there is a negative correlation between the industry climate index and analysts' forecast error. When the industry climate index is low, the analysts’ forecast will be more optimistic than the true value, with greater errors. Second, the performance forecast made the analyst's forecast error significantly smaller. At the same time, the higher the accuracy of performance forecast, for instance, the range of interval estimation is small, or the forecasting method is point estimation, the forecast error of the analyst after performance forecast is lower. This result indicates that different performance forecast accuracy will have different effects on analyst forecasts. Finally, the relationship between the three is discussed. It is found that when the industry is sluggish, the performance forecast has a greater impact on analysts. The innovation of this thesis's research lies in the following aspects. First of all, in the past, the external macro-factors were rarely involved in the inquiry of analysts' prediction errors. However, the external factors are also the key reasons that can affect the prediction errors. This thesis introduces the industry climate index, exploring how it affects forecasting errors, and has some innovative value. Secondly, when discussing the impact of performance forecast on analysts' forecast error, the thesis creatively adopts strict time sequence and makes pairing and contrasting research to solve the endogenous problems. Meanwhile, it clearly reflects the difference in the error forecasted by the analyst before and after the performance forecast. Finally, it discusses whether the effect of performance forecast on the forecast error of analysts is different under different industry conditions. From another perspective, it enriches the relevant literature on performance forecast and analysts' forecasting interaction mechanisms.
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